GDP in Pakistan estimated in FY2021 to develop by 3.94%

Under the Presidency of the Ministry of Planning, development and Special Initiatives, the 103rd meeting of the National Accounts Committee for the Study of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) took place.

On the basis of the current 6 to 9 month annualised results, the provisional GDP and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) projections were submitted for 2020-21.

For the period 2020-21, temporary GDP growth was forecast to be 3,94 percent, based on the projected growth of 2,77 percent, 3,57 percent and 4,43 percent of the agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors.

For 2019-20, growth has been updated from -0.38% to -0.47%. The brief from the sector is given below.

Agricultural Sector

In 2020-21, agriculture rose 2.77% compared with 3.31% in 2019-20. The growth of this year's major crops is 4,65% in the historic highest wheat, rice and maize production in the world, while sugar cane is the second highest ever.

This increase in wheat, rice, sugar cane and maize production is respectively 8.1%, 13.6%, 22.0% and 7.38%. Cotton, however, saw an increase of 22.8%, also leading to a 15.6% decrease in cotton extraction.

Othere was a good 1,41 per cent rise in other crops (e.g. vegetable, fruit or green fodder), mainly due to an increase in oilseed and vegetable production. There was 3.1% growth in the livestock industry. Forests have increased by 1.4%.

Industrial Sector

There was an optimistic increase of 3.57 percent in the total industry. The value added has fallen by 6.5% in the mine and quarry market. The broad-scale manufacturing industry, mainly powered by QIM data (July 2020 to March 2021), demonstrated an unparalleled healthy growth of 9.29%.

Textiles (5,9%), food and tabacco products (11,75%), oil (12,71%) and pharmaceutical (12,57%), chemicals (11,65%), non-metallic mineral products (24,3%), automobiles (23,38%) and fertiliser products contribute mainly to the development (5.69 percent).

Services Sector

For several years the services sector has been a key driver of growth and this year's preliminary results saw a 4.43% growth. While the wholesale and distribution sectors increased by 8.37%, largely due to a rise in marketable surplus, the shipping, warehousing and communications sector decreased by 0.61%.

There was a 7.84% growth in the finance and insurance market. Other utilities, including healthcare, public administration and other private sector services, saw positive growth of 4.01%, 2.20% and four.64%, respectively.

GDP at Current Market Prices

GDP has also been calculated at the existing market rates and is Rs. 47.709 billion for the year 2020 to 21. For 2019-20 this indicates a 14.8 percent increase over Rs. 41.556 billion. Per capita income was also estimated to be Rs. 246.414 for 2020-21 which was 14.6 percent higher than Rs. 215.060 for 2019-20.

Per capita dollar income rose 13.4% from 1,361 dollars in 2019-20 to 1,543 dollars in 2020-21.

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